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Alcoa Corp (AA) — wheel strategy suitability
Where AA sits as an underlying for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls, and what its own price history says about the risk of being assigned into a falling stock. Snapshot of 3 October 2026.
Alcoa Corp (AA) scores 69 on the Wheel score, which puts it in the acceptable band — it passes the profitability and options filters but is not among the strongest candidates.
The score is carried by its valuation (83/100) and held back by margin stability (55/100). That cheapness matters mainly on the put side — it is the cushion you have if you are assigned. Margins are lumpy, which widens the range of outcomes if you end up owning it.
It has weekly options, so no liquidity haircut is applied — weeklies let you roll on a shorter cycle and take theta more often.
Earnings are roughly 12 days out. That is inside the window where a single report can move the stock more than the premium pays you. Sell through earnings only on purpose.
Over the last 3.0 years it had 1 day with a fall of 10% or more (0.34 a year), a deepest drawdown of -52.3%, and a worst single session of -11.4%. That is better than the median screened name (0.67 gap-downs a year, -44.9% typical worst drawdown).
Realised volatility runs about 53% annualised. That is high. More premium, and a materially higher chance of being assigned into a falling stock.
Ownership context: a passive 13G filing on the register (13G 6.0% '24). A 13G is a passive holding disclosure, not a signal about the business. Large institutional ownership tends to come with steadier trading, nothing more.
There is no uptrend in the price right now, so assignment would leave you holding something that is not going up.
Score breakdown
| Wheel score | 69 | 0–100 suitability for options selling |
|---|---|---|
| Quality | 65 | ROIC, margins, leverage, accruals |
| Valuation | 83 | cheaper on fwd P/E, EV/EBITDA, FCF yield |
| Margin stability | 55 | steadier earnings score higher |
| Options listed | Weekly | weekly avoids the liquidity haircut |
| Accounting flags | 0 | −8 points each |
Realised tail risk
Computed from our own daily price history, 2023-10-04 to 2026-10-01 (749 sessions). The Wheel score is built from fundamentals, so these price-derived numbers are an independent check on it, not a restatement of it.
| Days falling 10%+ in one session | 1 | 0.34 a year |
|---|---|---|
| Deepest drawdown | -52.3% | peak to trough |
| Worst single session | -11.4% | |
| Realised volatility | 53% | annualised |
Fundamentals
| Revenue (ttm) | 12,831M USD |
|---|---|
| Revenue CAGR (3y) | 1.0% |
| Net margin | 9.0% |
| Return on equity | 18.9% |
| Share price | $42.06 |
| Days to earnings | 12 |
| Sector / industry | Basic Materials · Aluminum |
Open the AA options chain on Yahoo Finance to check live strikes and premium — this page deliberately carries no quotes, because a quote baked into a static page is stale before you read it.
Run the numbers on AA
Pre-filled with the snapshot price of $42.06 and 30-day realised volatility; add the strike and premium from the live option chain.